Rebellion in Syria and the Balance of Forces in the Region
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This is why, while the Turkish state hesitates from an intervention that would put Assad regime against itself both because of Kurdish question and the US policies, it is also fully aware of that a Syria without Assad will be completely out of control. Although AKP government's close relations with Sunni Islamist organisations, including Muslim Brothers, are known, it foresees that such organisations would not be an alternative to power in the near future.

 

01 July 2011 /International Bulletin / Issue 106

 

The wave of rebellion which surrounded the Middle East has also bounced into the Syria since the beginning of February. Syria is among the one of the oldest powers of the region and plays critical role in terms of the balance of forces in the Middle East. The Baas regime under the leadership of Bashar Al assad, who tried to escape from the wave since the explosion of the first rebellion in Tunisia through reform promises, has not succeeded in this policy of appeasement.
The rebellion, which was enflamed by a labourer burning himself similar to the one in Tunisia, later turned into clashes between Syrian army-police forces and people, resulting in hundreds of people losing their life. The main demands of the movement, in which the facebook and similar social media tools also played a role, were "freedom, human rights and the abolishment of state of emergency which has been continuing since 1963".
In the face of the working class and labourers who became the determining force of the political life in the Middle East and Northern Africa, the process in Syria has developed simultaneously with the US and EU imperialists' waging of interventions together with their attacks on Libya through ideological manipulations and which aim political superiority and gaining posts.
The direction of the people's movement in a county like Syria -which is administered by Alevi minority, which has western and secular approach, which the majority of Sunnis and other minority religious sects form the majority, which plays important role of balance in terms of the regional relations due to its role in Palestinian question and its position towards Israel, and which mainly chosen to stand by Iran and Hezbollah although it had developed new approach regarding its relations with USA and particularly with EU during Bashar Assad period -forms the centre of attraction of all countries in the region, including the Turkish bourgeois state.
For the US imperialists, although Baas power under the leadership of Assad does not represent the ideal alternative, there is still no opposition which could replace him without losing the control of regional balances and producing instabilities.
Yet Syria is a decisive country in terms of the balance of forces in the Middle East, and therefore no power that has got political interests over the region would risk the destabilization of the region and do important changes by taking risky steps.
Although the Muslim Brothers in Egypt that has been suppressed or forced to be a force within the system after the killing of Anvar Saadat or the monarchists against Kaddafi in Libya are considered as a short term or long term possible alternative powers; the Muslim Brothers in Syria is too far to be considered as an alternative because of their harsh positioning after the Hama massacre, the existence of countries in the region such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia which are administrated by Sunni sect, and which would bring more negativities regarding Israel's position in the region.
It is also not possible to talk about a bourgeois liberal opposition due to state of emergency laws for 46 years under the administration of Assad family. The bourgeois opposition forces consist of narrow organisations whose influence are limited and scattered.
And the Kurdish freedom movement, which represents one of the main interlocutors of the regime in Syria, continues to protect balanced relations with Assad. It is known that one of the possible scenarios under the conditions of downfall of the Assad in Syria is the development of total liquidation process against the Kurdish freedom movement.
The Turkish bourgeois state mainly acts in direction to force Assad to do reforms, in line with the US policy. The greatest fear of the Turkish bourgeois state is the realisation of reforms by Assad that would provide limited autonomy to Kurdish people; or provision of limited autonomy to the Kurds in Syria through imperialist intervention and in a chaotic situation following the downfall of Assad regime. This is why, while the Turkish state hesitates from an intervention that would put Assad regime against itself both because of Kurdish question and the US policies, it is also fully aware of that a Syria without Assad will be completely out of control. Although AKP government's close relations with Sunni Islamist organisations, including Muslim Brothers, are known, it foresees that such organisations would not be an alternative to power in the near future.
Moreover, it is also clear that because of Assad regime's relations with India, China and Russia, a direct intervention to Syria may create huge tensions between imperialist forces. This strengthens the tendency among regional and international powers to content with forcing Assad regime to reforms in connection with the needs of the imperialist globalisation process.


 

 

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Rebellion in Syria and the Balance of Forces in the Region
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This is why, while the Turkish state hesitates from an intervention that would put Assad regime against itself both because of Kurdish question and the US policies, it is also fully aware of that a Syria without Assad will be completely out of control. Although AKP government's close relations with Sunni Islamist organisations, including Muslim Brothers, are known, it foresees that such organisations would not be an alternative to power in the near future.

 

01 July 2011 /International Bulletin / Issue 106

 

The wave of rebellion which surrounded the Middle East has also bounced into the Syria since the beginning of February. Syria is among the one of the oldest powers of the region and plays critical role in terms of the balance of forces in the Middle East. The Baas regime under the leadership of Bashar Al assad, who tried to escape from the wave since the explosion of the first rebellion in Tunisia through reform promises, has not succeeded in this policy of appeasement.
The rebellion, which was enflamed by a labourer burning himself similar to the one in Tunisia, later turned into clashes between Syrian army-police forces and people, resulting in hundreds of people losing their life. The main demands of the movement, in which the facebook and similar social media tools also played a role, were "freedom, human rights and the abolishment of state of emergency which has been continuing since 1963".
In the face of the working class and labourers who became the determining force of the political life in the Middle East and Northern Africa, the process in Syria has developed simultaneously with the US and EU imperialists' waging of interventions together with their attacks on Libya through ideological manipulations and which aim political superiority and gaining posts.
The direction of the people's movement in a county like Syria -which is administered by Alevi minority, which has western and secular approach, which the majority of Sunnis and other minority religious sects form the majority, which plays important role of balance in terms of the regional relations due to its role in Palestinian question and its position towards Israel, and which mainly chosen to stand by Iran and Hezbollah although it had developed new approach regarding its relations with USA and particularly with EU during Bashar Assad period -forms the centre of attraction of all countries in the region, including the Turkish bourgeois state.
For the US imperialists, although Baas power under the leadership of Assad does not represent the ideal alternative, there is still no opposition which could replace him without losing the control of regional balances and producing instabilities.
Yet Syria is a decisive country in terms of the balance of forces in the Middle East, and therefore no power that has got political interests over the region would risk the destabilization of the region and do important changes by taking risky steps.
Although the Muslim Brothers in Egypt that has been suppressed or forced to be a force within the system after the killing of Anvar Saadat or the monarchists against Kaddafi in Libya are considered as a short term or long term possible alternative powers; the Muslim Brothers in Syria is too far to be considered as an alternative because of their harsh positioning after the Hama massacre, the existence of countries in the region such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia which are administrated by Sunni sect, and which would bring more negativities regarding Israel's position in the region.
It is also not possible to talk about a bourgeois liberal opposition due to state of emergency laws for 46 years under the administration of Assad family. The bourgeois opposition forces consist of narrow organisations whose influence are limited and scattered.
And the Kurdish freedom movement, which represents one of the main interlocutors of the regime in Syria, continues to protect balanced relations with Assad. It is known that one of the possible scenarios under the conditions of downfall of the Assad in Syria is the development of total liquidation process against the Kurdish freedom movement.
The Turkish bourgeois state mainly acts in direction to force Assad to do reforms, in line with the US policy. The greatest fear of the Turkish bourgeois state is the realisation of reforms by Assad that would provide limited autonomy to Kurdish people; or provision of limited autonomy to the Kurds in Syria through imperialist intervention and in a chaotic situation following the downfall of Assad regime. This is why, while the Turkish state hesitates from an intervention that would put Assad regime against itself both because of Kurdish question and the US policies, it is also fully aware of that a Syria without Assad will be completely out of control. Although AKP government's close relations with Sunni Islamist organisations, including Muslim Brothers, are known, it foresees that such organisations would not be an alternative to power in the near future.
Moreover, it is also clear that because of Assad regime's relations with India, China and Russia, a direct intervention to Syria may create huge tensions between imperialist forces. This strengthens the tendency among regional and international powers to content with forcing Assad regime to reforms in connection with the needs of the imperialist globalisation process.